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As political theater took center stage in Turkey, the war went on in Ukraine. Kyiv has few options
Ukrainian officials and analysts say Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has few options but to draw U.S. President Donald Trump’s ire against Vladimir Putin, while depending on Europe’s support
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Since U.S.-brokered talks began in March, Ukraine’s strategy has been to convince the Trump administration that Vladimir Putin is unreliable and that Kyiv is serious about peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has few options, analysts and officials say, but to draw U.S. President Donald Trump’s ire against Putin, while depending on Europe’s united and stalwart support.
In the latest round, Zelenskyy not only accepted Putin's offer to hold direct talks in Turkey, after the U.S. endorsed the idea, but raised the stakes and challenged the Russian leader to a face-to-face. The gesture failed to move Putin and the Istanbul talks were demoted to a technical meeting Friday that failed to yield substantial results on ending the war.
The U.S. has expressed frustration with the stalled talks and threatened to withdraw if results aren’t achieved. On Friday, Trump told reporters after boarding Air Force One to return to Washington from Abu Dhabi that he may call Putin soon.
“He and I will meet, and I think we’ll solve it, or maybe not,” Trump said. “At least we’ll know. And if we don’t solve it, it’ll be very interesting.”
All along, Zelenskyy's message, directed at the Trump administration, has been: The Russian leader cannot be trusted.
It's a rhetorical game of pingpong in which both Kyiv and Moscow try to outmaneuver the other vis-à-vis the U.S. But the political theatrics are underscored by stark realities on the ground. In this war of attrition against Russia's invasion, Ukraine’s position is poised to grow weaker as time goes on, unless powerful sanctions are imposed against Moscow and the U.S. continues arms deliveries.
“He is in a difficult situation because behind him is a whole nation of people who are suffering,” said Oleksandr Merezkho, a lawmaker in Zelenskyy’s party. “We are playing (along), we are trying to do everything we can because we don’t want to lose the support of the U.S. We don’t want to be accused that it was our fault.”
Putin’s no-show did not result in a strong reaction from Trump, which frustrated Ukrainian officials.
“It looks surreal, weird when Ukraine is complying to everything required from us, and Putin ignores, rejects,” said Merezhko. “It looks very imbalanced, it looks unfair for Ukraine.”
Ukraine hopes for sanctions, while Russia stalls
Since March, Zelenskyy has made a point of showing Ukraine's willingness to acquiesce to U.S. demands to avoid alienating Trump, his most powerful ally.
Kyiv hoped Russia’s unwillingness to do the same would, in time, provoke the U.S. to unleash powerful sanctions and cripple Moscow’s war machine — the most likely scenario in which Ukraine can hope to weaken Russia and negotiate an advantageous peace deal, analysts said.
Russia’s position has remained mostly consistent. The Kremlin kept repeating that it was ready for peace talks with Ukraine — while making demands that were politically untenable for Zelenskyy, and would require Ukraine to make territorial concessions, neutralize its army and vow never to join NATO.
Throughout the war, Moscow has also accused Kyiv and its Western allies of seeking to prolong the fighting and derailing peace efforts.
Most recently, the Kremlin pushed back against a proposed 30-day ceasefire, countering with two brief unilateral ones, and then accused Ukraine of failing to stop the fighting, painting it as unwilling to silence the guns. At the same time, Russian officials underscore the effort to resolve the conflict is complex.
“We understand that Washington wants to achieve quick success in this process, but at the same time we hope that there is an understanding that the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis is too complicated, there are many questions and details that need to be addressed before the settlement,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters last month.
Ukraine is asking for an unconditional temporary ceasefire, during which time future diplomatic talks can take shape. Zelenskyy also asked for a trust-building gesture, such as the release of prisoners of war, something the two sides agreed to Friday. The exchange of 1,000 prisoners would be their largest swap yet.
But Ukraine has also maintained flexibility in its negotiating position by accepting Trump's proposals to avoid alienating the U.S. president.
“They're desperate to keep the Americans on their side,” said Balazs Jarabik, an analyst specializing in Eastern Europe and Ukraine.
In March, Kyiv agreed to the U.S. proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire, which Putin effectively rejected by imposing conditions impossible for Ukraine. In April, Kyiv signed a landmark minerals deal sought by Trump after months of fraught negotiations and a brief pause in military aid.
That is why agreeing to send a delegation to Istanbul, after Trump supported the idea, was a risky move for Zelenskyy. It played into Putin’s aim of drawing Kyiv into talks that had been stalled since the early weeks of Moscow's 2022 invasion.
“We showed that we are for peace negotiations and support Trump’s plan," said Mykola Davydiuk, a Ukrainian political scientist. “Now the ball is with Trump.”
Despite verbal threats from Europe and the U.S., sanctions of the kind that could devastate Russia’s energy sector have not been forthcoming.
Zelenskyy has expressed support for a sanctions package pushed in the U.S. Congress by Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham that could impose 500% tariffs on Russian energy imports. Graham has said he has enough support in the House to bring the sanctions bill to the floor.
Russia likely gearing up for summer fighting campaign
For now, Zelenskyy has few options but to continue to highlight Putin’s disinclination to engage in meaningful talks and keep the U.S. engaged.
“If it turns out that the Russian delegation really is just theatrical and can’t deliver any results today, the world must respond,” the Ukrainian leader said at a European summit in Albania on Friday. “There needs to be a strong reaction, including sanctions against Russia’s energy sector and banks. Pressure must continue to rise until real progress is made.”
For Ukrainian soldiers fighting along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line the theatricality of the week’s political developments stood in harsh contrast with the grinding war.
“Better to call it a circus,” said a Ukrainian drone operator with the 68th brigade who, like other soldiers, gave only his call sign Goose in line with military protocol.
Analysts say Russia is at a crucial crossroads in the war, where it can negotiate a truce and consolidate gains, or launch a summer military campaign to maximize wins before the onset of winter.
Ukraine has always been at a disadvantage and faces manpower and ammunition shortages. Analysts have offered estimates of six months to two years for how much longer it can hang on.
Much will depend on what kind of support Ukraine receives from partners and how quickly the country can scale up domestic weapons production.
Russian forces recently intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces spokesperson. Soldiers said Russia has a clear aim of reaching the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, to be able to claim the capture of two out of four partially occupied territories.
“The feeling is that we will either hold out and allow the political leadership of the country to freeze the conflict along the contact line, or the enemy will break through,” said a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign Corsair Denis in the Sumy region.
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Dasha Litvinova contributed from Tallinn, Estonia.
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